MMA Odds Discussion Thread.

[zach22084]

Anyone have any thoughts on upcoming fights/lines. I made decent sized plays on Bader at -105 and Machida @ -205.

I also locked in Kampmann at +285.

I am likely going to pull the trigger on Maynard if he gets up to the +135 range on my betting sites, also I believe Edgar holds a ton of value at +250. Pretty crazy that a guy that won a good fight, w/o a flash sub or ko is that big of a dog.

Already have 2.5u locked in on Couture, but am debating getting out of it...is Randy going to be able to get it to the ground quick enough?

Have Lesnar at 6u between -125 and -135. Will likely arb out of most of it, as I did with the Carwin fight.

[Atomikhaos]

i like nogueria over bader, but i will admit i am biased. i don't think maynard will beat florian, wouldn't take kampmann over shields. i think penn beats edgar this time, and i like the couture pick, but he's getting old. just my opinions of course.

[zach22084]

This is about odds though, not picks.

[Atomikhaos]

ahh, pardon my previous nonsense. don't you have to have them win to get the money? i just assumed with odds it was betting.

[zach22084]

ahh, pardon my previous nonsense. don't you have to have them win to get the money? i just assumed with odds it was betting.

Yes you do have to have them win, but its more about value. Since no one is a 100% favorite, you have to determine how often you think a fighter wins this fight. Lets say you think Machida beats Rampage 80% of the time....well 80% converted to a line is -400. So there would be a ton of value in betting on Machida at -205. -205 is about 67%. I think Frankie can win this fight probably around 40-45%....while his line +260 is equal to about 27%....makes sense?

[Atomikhaos]

Yes you do have to have them win, but its more about value. Since no one is a 100% favorite, you have to determine how often you think a fighter wins this fight. Lets say you think Machida beats Rampage 80% of the time....well 80% converted to a line is -400. So there would be a ton of value in betting on Machida at -205. -205 is about 67%. I think Frankie can win this fight probably around 40-45%....while his line +260 is equal to about 27%....makes sense?

pretty much, it's just like a spread. in the end, you're picking who you think will win, but you're looking for the value picks, am i right or still off?

[zach22084]

ahh, pardon my previous nonsense. don't you have to have them win to get the money? i just assumed with odds it was betting.

In my last card, I had 1 different bet than pick.....I picked Silva, since I figured he would win >50% but I bet on Sonnen, since I didnt feel he should have been such a large underdog. In the card before, I picked Griffin but bet on Gomi and also bet on Johnson while picking Riddle.

[suicidevan]

Yea, I've never done any betting on fights, how does this work?

[zach22084]

If you want a detailed breakdown, look at the sticky I put up in the wagering section. Its explains it very well.

[suicidevan]

Thanks.

[suicidevan]

Yea I would for sure be betting on good lines rather than who I want or even think will win.

[zach22084]

You are right on Atomic....in betting sports there is no such thing as a 100%, especially fight sports with bad cuts/illegal strikes, etc.

[zach22084]

I dont know if any of the guys on here follow Bellator, but Cole Konrad just opened at -500 against the MASSIVE Brit Neil Grove....can't see the wrestler losing, but am surprised by the line, as Grove is a tough guy..

[zach22084]

Anderson Silva opened at -325 vs Vitor...seems like a decent price as Belfort will likely stand with him

[zach22084]

Askren opened up at -170, but I didnt notice it until he was -215. I bet 4units on him at that. Good may be better than his other comp, but IMO he still has a punchers chance.

[zach22084]

Wow..won big on Askren....

My bets for UFC 121

Brock Lesnar 0.67 units to win 0.5 units
Martin Kampmann 0.5 units to win 1.0 units
Matt Hamill 1.86 units to win 1.2 units
Brendan Schaub 0.6 units to win 0.93 units

I may make a bet or 2 on the undercard, but havent had a chance to evaluate the fighters too much.

[zach22084]

So what do you MMA guys think Fitch vs Penn will open as?? I'm guessing Fitch as a slight to moderate favorite, somewhere in the range of -150. Any thoughts?