2011 Fantasy Football Draft Guide: One Maniac’s Guide

One Maniac’s Guide to Your 2011 Fantasy Football Draft

By: Conor Reilly

Late August.  The slow transition from summer to autumn.  A time where about one-third of baseball fanatics fully invest themselves in their team’s pennant race, while the vast majority turn a disappointed eye towards next season.

Yes, this time of year had plenty going on in the real world.  But most importantly, late August brings about the ‘Christmas Season’ of the fantasy world.  We are speaking of course about fantasy football.  The research.  The draft.  The waiver wire.  The sleepless nights when you start one player over another simply based on a hunch.  The excitement, fun, and inevitable anguish of fantasy football has created an ever-growing culture for all fans to enjoy.

Me?  I have been doing this stuff for about 12 years now.  But any fantasy sports veteran knows that this is no normal craft–experience does now guarantee success in any way, shape, or form.  We’ve all seen first-year fantasy players cruise to the title while established players rot in the cellar.  It’s almost NCAA-Tournament Pool-esque in the way the cards fall sometimes.

But if there’s on advantage to being a returning player, it’s learning from mistakes.  Yes, there are usually too many to remember from year to year.  But any small improvement you can make to strategies both on draft day and during the season can prove critical.

View 2011 NFL Tickets and Schedules

Which brings us to the draft.  I’m not nieve–I realize chances are that if you’re looking for sure-fire fantasy football answers and tactics, this column may not be the first place you scurry to.  I’m no ‘insider.‘  I’m not plugged into the locker room of any team.  And I would never call myself the “Talented Mr.” anything.  As the title of this column suggests, just consider me a maniac that feels confident in his fantasy football viewpoints and likes to share them.  Disagree with anything?  Let’s talk it out in the comments section.  Part of the fun of fantasy football is the arguments about the things that seem so important but couldn’t be more minuscule.

Well, enough of the prelude.  Most drafts typically occur over one of the following two weekends coming up.  I’ll throw my hat in the ring and give rankings for each position.  Nothing too crazy (though it can be important in a few leagues, to rank anything over 30 quarterbacks or 50 runners/receivers just seems a bit pompous.)  But any computer can just dole out a ranking and a player and call it a day.  I’ll share some insights on each position afterwards.  Agree with what I say?  Boost my ego in the comments section.  Disagree?  Even better–come at me, bro.  It’s all in the name of fun and I can’t wait to get out there on that couch and click that mouse to the best of my abilities.  Oh, and I realize separating positions doesn’t bode well for when to draft a player (No. 1 QB or No. 3 RB?  No 1. TE or No. 15 WR?)  So I’ll put in parenthesis the round I would take each player in.  Without further adieu…

 TOP 30 FANTASY QUARTERBACKS FOR 2011

1.  A. Rodgers, Packers (Late 1)
2.  D. Brees, Saints (Mid 2)
3.  T. Brady, Patriots (Late 2)
4.  M. Vick, Eagles (Late 2)
5.  P. Rivers, Chargers (Late 3)
6.  T. Romo, Cowboys (4)
7.  P. Manning, Colts (4)
8.  M. Schaub, Texans (4)
9.  B. Roethlisberger, Steelers (5)
10.  M. Ryan, Falcons (5)
11.  J. Freeman, Bucs (6)
12.  E. Manning, Giants (7)
13.  J. Cutler, Bears (Backup)
14.  K. Kolb, Cardinals (Backup)
15.  S. Bradford, Rams (Backup)
16.  M. Stafford, Lions (Backup)
17.  K. Orton, Broncos (Backup)
18.  J. Flacco, Ravens (Backup)
19.  M. Sanchez, Jets (Backup)
20.  M. Cassel, Chiefs (Backup)
21.  C. McCoy, Browns (Backup)
22.  D. McNabb, Vikings (Backup)
23.  R. Fitzpatrick, Bills (Backup)
24.  D. Garrard, Jaguars (Backup)
25.  J. Campbell, Raiders (Undrafted)
26.  M. Hasselbeck, Titans (Undrafted)
27.  C. Newton, Panthers (Undrafted)
28.  V. Young, Eagles (Undrafted)
29.  C. Henne, Dolphins (Undrafted)
30.  A. Smith, 49ers (Undrafted)

Quarterback(s) I Like More Than Most People:

Tony Romo and Jay Cutler.  Certainly two of the more hated players in all of football, yes.  Both have legitimate injury concerns from last season.  Romo’s Cowboys have underachieved in recent years…but this is fantasy, people.  He has put up stats when healthy.  Dez Bryant is turning into a monster at wide receiver.  And with the reliable Jason Witten in the red zone, it wouldn’t shock me at all if he were a top-5 quarterback in fantasy.  There’s no way my blood pressure would be able to handle putting Cutler in the starting lineup on a week-to-week basis.  The interceptions are staggering and his supporting cast isn’t great.  But I don’t think he’s hit his peak yet and for a bye week or quick injury replacement, I’ll feel safer with him than young pups like Bradford or Stafford.

Quarterback(s) I Like Less Than Most People:

Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb.  No, it’s nothing personal against the 2010 Eagles.  These former teammates just plain worry me.  The way things seem to be shaking out, you’re going to have to invest a top-5, perhaps even a top-3 pick to land Vick.  If you got your crystal ball out and saw that he would be healthy for all of 2011, you’d pick him in a heartbeat.  But I own no such crystal ball.  And I can’t stomach the fact that my first rounder may miss a few games or even much more because he gets battered around so much.  Vick is the ultimate fantasy wild card in 2011.  He can carry you to the title on his own, or he can run you into the ground via injury.  As you can see by where I have him ranked, there’s no way I’ll be owning him this season.  As far as Kolb goes, I realize no one is declaring him the next Dan Marino.  But is he the next Derek Anderson?  The prospect of throwing to Larry Fitzgerald and others in the desert is appealing. But I haven’t seen nearly enough to feel confident in him as a starting-caliber QB in 2011.

TOP 50 FANTASY RUNNING BACKS FOR 2011

1.  A. Foster, Texans (Top 3)
2.  A. Peterson, Vikings (Top 3)
3.  R. Rice, Ravens (Top 5)
4.  J. Charles, Chiefs (Top 5)
5.  C. Johnson, Titans (Top 5)
6.  R. Mendenhall, Steelers (Top 10)
7.  M. Jones-Drew, Jaguars (Top 10)
8.  L. McCoy, Eagles (Late 1)
9.  M. Turner, Falcons (Late 1)
10.  D. McFadden, Raiders (Late 1)
11.  F. Gore, 49ers (Early 2)
12.  M. Forte, Bears (Early 2)
13.  S. Jackson, Rams (Late 2)
14.  S. Greene, Jets (Late 2)
15.  P. Hillis, Browns (Late 2)
16.  L. Blount, Bucs (Late 2)
17.  D. Williams, Panthers (Early 3)
18.  A. Bradshaw, Giants (Early 3)
19.  F. Jones, Cowboys (Late 3)
20.  J. Best, Lions (Late 3)
21.  K. Moreno, Broncos (4)
22.  R. Grant, Packers (4)
23.  B. Wells, Cardinals (4)
24.  J. Stewart, Panthers (4)
25.  B. Green-Ellis, Patriots (4)
26.  C. Benson, Bengals (5)
27.  M. Ingram, Saints (5)
28.  M. Lynch, Seahawks (5)
29.  R. Matthews, Chargers (6)
30.  F. Jackson, Bills (6)
31.  J. Addai, Colts (6)
32.  D. Thomas, Dolphins (7)
33.  M. Tolbert, Chargers (7)
34.  C. J. Spiller, Bills (7)
35.  M. Bush, Raiders (8)
36.  P. Thomas, Saints (8)
37.  L. Tomlinson, Jets (Backup)
38.  D. Woodhead, Patriots (Backup)
39.  B. Jacobs, Giants (Backup)
40.  W. McGahee, Broncos (Backup)
41.  J. Starks, Packers (Backup)
42.  T. Hightower, Redskins (Backup)
43.  T. Jones, Chiefs (Backup)
44.  R. Brown, Eagles (Backup)
45.  R. Jennings, Jaguars (Backup)
46.  J. Harrison, Lions (Backup)
47.  B. Tate, Texans (Backup)
48.  T. Gerhart, Vikings (Backup)
49.  R. Torain, Redskins (Backup)
50.  R. Bush, Dolphins (Backup)

Running Back(s) I Like More Than Most People:

Ray Rice, Darren McFadden, Shonn Greene, and Felix Jones.  Allow me to clarify: it’s not like people are hating on these guys.  If any lucky slouch could land both Rice and McFadden on their roster, they’re probably well on their way to the playoffs.  This is just in the context of where these guys are being drafted.  Some may prefer Johnson or Charles after the (seemingly) undisputed top two.  I see Rice having a monster year for Baltimore and would not be floored in any way if he was 2011’s fantasy king.  McFadden is oozing with talent, and he sneaks into the top 10 instead of proven (but aging) stars like Gore and Jackson.  The Jets put everything in Greene’s hands at the beginning of last season.  Unfortunately, right from the very first snap of the season, those hands couldn’t hold onto anything.  If he remedies his case of the dropsies, he will more-than justify that top-15 ranking.  I know preseason shouldn’t matter much, but Jones just looks ready to explode.  Anyone that lands him as a number-two running back should be downright giddy.

Running Back(s) I Like Less Than Most People:

Chris Johnson, Steven Jackson, DeAngelo Williams, and BenJarvis Green-Ellis.  The Chris Johnson selection is tentative.  This contract holdout is really painting a murky picture in fantasy terms.  Anyone who selects him will be sweating bullets until he takes the field.  Even if/when he does, will rust/injury be a high concern.  He’s immensely talented, but these are not the issues you want from your cornerstone player.  Jackson once was a cornerstone in fantasy…but he’s getting old in a league and position of youth.  It’s almost a lock for him to be out 2-4 games due to injury.  DeAngelo Williams would be a stud if the Panthers‘ backfield was solely his, but Jonathan Stewart continually takes 7-10 points away from him every week.  I don’t have a problem with Green-Ellis, I just think to expect anything more than last year’s statistical output would be a reach.  He’s great as a matchup/bye week replacement, but dicey as a fantasy starter.

TOP 50 FANTASY WIDE RECEIVERS FOR 2011

1.  A. Johnson, Texans (Late 1)
2.  L. Fitzgerald, Cardinals (Early 2)
3.  R. White, Falcons (Early 2)
4.  C. Johnson, Lions (Late 2)
5.  G. Jennings, Packers (Late 2)
6.  H. Nicks, Giants (Early 3)
7.  M. Wallace, Steelers (Early 3)
8.  M. Austin, Cowboys (Late 3)
9.  V. Jackson, Chargers (Late 3)
10.  D. Bryant, Cowboys (4)
11.  D. Jackson, Eagles (4)
12.  D. Bowe, Chiefs (4)
13.  R. Wayne, Colts (4)
14.  M. Williams, Bucs (5)
15.  M. Colston, Saints (5)
16.  B. Lloyd, Broncos (5)
17.  S. Johnson, Bills (5)
18.  S. Holmes, Jets (5)
19.  J. Maclin, Eagles (5)
20.  W. Welker, Patriots (6)
21.  M. Manningham, Giants (6)
22.  B. Marshall, Dolphins (6)
23.  P. Harvin, Vikings (6)
24.  S. Moss, Redskins (6)
25.  K. Britt, Titans (6)
26.  M. Floyd, Chargers (6)
27.  R. Williams, Bears (6)
28.  P. Burress, Jets (6)
29.  S. Smith, Panthers (6)
30.  J. Jones, Falcons (7)
31.  B. Edwards, 49ers (7)
32.  C. Ochocinco, Patriots (7)
33.  A. Collie, Colts (7)
34.  P. Garcon, Colts (7)
35.  A.J. Green, Bengals (7)
36.  L. Evans, Ravens (7)
37.  L. Moore, Saints (Backup)
38.  J. Nelson, Packers (Backup)
39.  J. Knox, Bears (Backup)
40.  M. Thomas, Jaguars (Backup)
41.  J. Jones, Packers (Backup)
42.  M. Crabtree, 49ers (Backup)
43.  J. Ford, Raiders (Backup)
44.  D. Branch, Patriots (Backup)
45.  H. Ward, Steelers (Backup)
46.  D. Bess, Dolphins (Backup)
47.  N. Burleson, Lions (Backup)
48.  M. Sims-Walker, Rams (Backup)
49.  S. Breaston, Chiefs (Backup)
50.  D. Driver, Packers (Backup)

Wide Receiver(s) I Like More Than Most People:

Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston, Roy WIlliams, and Braylon Edwards.  It’s not hard to like Fitzgerald.  Many seem to believe that this is the year he falls a step behind Roddy, Calvin, Greg, and the like.  I’ll bet on the new multi-multi-millionaire to put up huge numbers with a somewhat-competent quarterback tossing the rock.  Colston’s making a habit of getting banged up year after year.  But with Brees throwing and the Saints offense still high-powered, he seems to be slipping a bit too far in drafts.  Roy Williams and Braylon Edwards may be psychopaths off the field.  But both have the potential to be #1 receivers for their teams.  For where they’re going in drafts, they can pay serious dividends as bye replacements or even #2 starters.

Wide Receiver(s) I Like Less Than Most People:

Reggie Wayne, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Marshall, and Chad Ochocinco

Wayne is a gimme for this spot.  There’s no doubt of his tremendous ability and remarkable consistency over the past several years.  But as good as he is, a Reggie Wayne without Peyton Manning throwing to him is like the best iPod in the world with only 5% of battery life remaining.  As you can see, I’ve bumped Wayne, Collie, and Garcon way down.  Maclin may be a fantastic player to have in real life, but Philly has to share the yardage-wealth between Vick, McCoy, Jackson, and newly-acquired Steve Smith.  He may be the relatively-odd man out.  Marshall burned yours truly in unbelievable fashion last season and those wounds won’t heal until at least 2015.  Stay away.  Ochocinco was a savvy move by the Patriots.  But with Branch, Welker, and the two tight ends already all familiar with Brady, I’m not buying in fantasy-wise.

TOP 30 FANTASY TIGHT ENDS FOR 2011

1.  A. Gates, Chargers (Early 4)
2.  J. Finley, Packers (5)
3.  J. Witten, Cowboys (5)
4.  V. Davis, 49ers (5)
5.  D. Clark, Colts (6)
6.  O. Daniels, Texans (7)
7.  K. Winslow, Bucs (7)
8.  T. Gonzalez, Falcons (8)
9.  G. Olsen, Panthers (9)
10.  J. Graham, Saints (9)
11.  M. Lewis, Jaguars (10)
12.  Z. Miller, Seahawks (10)
13.  B. Pettigrew, Lions (Backup)
14.  R. Gronkowski, Patriots (Backup)
15.  D. Keller, Jets (Backup)
16.  B. Watson, Browns (Backup)
17.  J. Cook, Titans (Backup)
18.  K. Boss, Raiders (Backup)
19.  T. Moeaki, Chiefs (Backup)
20.  T. Heap, Cardinals (Backup)
21.  H. Miller, Steelers (Backup)
22.  B. Celek, Eagles (Backup)
23.  C. Cooley, Redskins (Backup)
24.  K. Rudolph, Vikings (Backup)
25.  A. Hernandez, Patriots (Undrafted)
26.  J. Gresham, Bengals (Undrafted)
27.  V. Shiancoe, Vikings (Undrafted)
28.  T. Scheffler, Lions (Undrafted)
29.  J. Shockey, Panthers (Undrafted)
30.  J. Tamme, Colts (Undrafted)

Tight End(s) I Like More Than Most People:

Jermichael Finley and Kellen Winslow.  Before I explain, it’s important to note that tight end analysis cannot be as intense or written-in-stone as the primary positions (QB/RB/WR.)  There is certainly an undisputed king of the position (Gates) but if you land any of the top-12 you’ll be ok week after week.  This position is notorious for high fluctuations in points from week to week, so you just try to find some consistency.  Finley was displaying Gates-esque ability before getting injured last year, and he can be stolen in drafts this season.  The clear-cut #2 in my eyes.  Winslow is still waiting for that stellar campaign after being drafted so high a few years back.  I got a hunch be breaks out in a big way this year.

Tight End(s) I Like Less Than Most People:

Dallas Clark and Mercedes Lewis.  I’m not going to get worked up in a frenzy when it comes to criticizing tight ends.  You know the deal with Colts players and the uncertainty of Manning’s health.  Clark will still get his looks, but perhaps not at the elite level we’ve come to expect.  I will not spend much time hating on Lewis.  He’s just not my type.  It’s not him-it’s me.

TOP 20 FANTASY KICKERS FOR 2011

**NOTE: There will be no round in parenthesis after these players.  That is because in no way, shape, or form should kickers ever be taken before the last round.  Grab another runner.  Grab a quarterback just in case.  Hell, grab Mercedes Lewis for all I care.  No kickers before the last round.

1.  N. Folk, Jets
2.  M. Crosby, Packers
3.  N. Kaeding, Chargers
4.  S. Janikowski, Raiders
5.  N. Rackers, Texans
6.  G. Hartley, Saints
7.  R. Bironas, Texans
8.  M. Bryant, Falcons
9.  A. Vinatieri, Colts
10.  A. Henery, Eagles
11.  B. Cundiff, Ravens
12.  S. Gostkowski, Patriots
13.  J. Brown, Rams (Undrafted)
14.  R. Gould, Bears (Undrafted)
15.  D. Buehler, Cowboys (Undrafted)
16.  J. Feely, Cardinals (Undrafted)
17.  D. Carpenter, Dolphins (Undrafted)
18.  R. Longwell, Vikings (Undrafted)
19.  M. Prater, Broncos (Undrafted)
20.  L. Tynes, Giants (Undrafted)

Kicker I Like More Than Most People:

Nick Folk.  Only because he plays for the Jets, and the Jets are my favorite team.  And I’m trying to prove how inconsequential kickers are to fantasy football.

Kicker I Like Less Than Most People:

Stephen Gostkowski.  Yeah…

TOP 20 FANTASY DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS FOR 2011

**NOTE: There will be rounds in parenthesis for only the top defenses.  The rest can be saved for the second-to-last round (pre-kicker) Though not on the same level as the foot men, defenses can be a total crapshoot as well.  It’s great to have a good one, but it’s not terribly difficult to find an emerging unit on the waiver wire during the season.  If you really are in love with a squad, go ahead and lock them up.  But to do so before you have a starting quarterback, as well as starters and at least one backup at RB/WR, you may be the focus of some real scrutiny on draft day.

1. Green Bay Packers (9)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (9)
3. New York Jets (10)
4. Baltimore Ravens (11)
5. Chicago Bears (11)
6. Philadelphia Eagles (11)
7. New York Giants (12)
8. New Orleans Saints
9. New England Patriots
10.  Atlanta Falcons
11.  San Diego Chargers
12.  Detroit Lions
13.  Dallas Cowboys (Undrafted)
14.  Kansas City Chiefs (Undrafted)
15.  Oakland Raiders (Undrafted)
16.  Miami Dolphins (Undrafted)
17.  Minnesota Vikings (Undrafted)
18.  St. Louis Rams (Undrafted)
19.  Houston Texans (Undrafted)
20.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Undrafted)

Defense/Special Team I Like More Than Most People:

New York Giants.  Let’s call a spade a spade here.  In real-life, nothing has gone good for the Giants since DeSean Jackson danced into the endzone on that punt return.  Injuries, player departure, malcontents, etc.  Some of that may have dripped into the fantasy world, as Big Blue is being seen as a lower-end defense for 2011.  But with all those pass rushers, the sacks and hurried throws will still be there.  And with their uncanny ability to force fumbles, they’re a great  weekly candidate to give that rare defensive touchdown.

Defense/Special Tea, I Like Less Than Most People:

Philadelphia Eagles.  Nnamdi and Dominique bring a pass defense that cannot be argued.  But can I politely ask what happens when teams decided not to be stubborn and just run the ball play after play on these guys?  This is a unit that has to gel quickly, as one projected starter in 2011 had more than 55 tackles for the team in 2010.  DeSean Jackson and the special teams are intriguing for return touchdowns, but will teams kick to him?  And with the supposed ‘dream team‘ offense lighting up the scoreboard, there is certainly potential for opposing teams to put up yards and points in garbage time of games.

Well, there you have it.  Everything you need to know about 2011 fantasy football in just over 3,000 words.  Of course it can take all of one week for these rankings and viewpoints to become laughably inaccurate.  But as draft day approaches, hopefully this provides some insight along with the other research you’ve done.  Agree?  Disagree?  Confused on anything?  Please drop a comment.  I’d be thrilled to talk it out.  Fantasy football has arrived.  Let the wonderful agony begin!